The 2024 general-election campaign for President is concentrated on just 7 states (and 2 congressional districts)—with a total of 95 electoral votes.
The other 43 states and the District of Columbia are divided almost equally between the two major political parties.
● The Republican nominee can count on 218 electoral votes from 24 states.
● The Democratic nominee can count on 225 electoral votes from 19 states and DC.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency.
Because of state winner-take-all laws for awarding electoral votes, presidential candidates only pay attention to voters in closely divided battleground states. These are states where the two-party vote is in the narrow range of about six percentage points (47%-53%).
The 7 closely divided "battleground" states (and two congressional districts) that will decide the 2024 presidential elections are shown on the map below. These 7 states have a little less than 20% of the U.S. population. That is, 80% of Americans are mere spectators to the 2024 presidential election.
The map shows the locations of the 126 general-election campaign events as of October 17, 2024. All but 9 of the 126 visits were in the 7 states.
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** Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes statewide and one electoral vote for each congressional district. Maine’s 2nd district and Nebraska’s 2nd district are shown separately in this table because these particular districts are competitive (and, in fact, voted differently for President from the rest of the state in 2020). Then, Maine’s remaining three non-competitive electoral votes and Nebraska’s remaining four non-competitive electoral votes are shown separately.
In 2020, almost all (96%) of the general-election campaign events (204 of 212) occurred in the 12 states where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow eight-point range between 46% and 54%.
In 2016, almost all (94%) of the general-election campaign events (375 of 399) occurred in the 12 states where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow eight-point range between 47% and 55%.
In 2012, 100% of the 253 general-election campaign events occurred in the 12 States where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow six-point range between 45% and 51%.
In 2008, almost all (98%) of the general-election campaign events (293 of 300) occurred in the 14 states where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow eight-point range between 42% and 50%.