A New York Times article (below) reported (May 11, 2008) that both the McCain and Obama campaigns agree the 2008 presidential race will be concentrated in 14 closely divided "battleground" states. The 14 states are Colorado (9), Florida (27), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10).

A Los Angeles Times article (below) quotes Charles Black, a senior McCain advisor, saying: "Everybody's top priorities will be those 12 to 15 swing states that were close in 2004" (June 5, 2008).

An AP story (below) by Charles Babington (June 6, 2008) reports that the "presidential race boils down to 15 states."

The Washington Post Electoral College Prediction Map identifies 10 "swing" states (totaling 111 electoral votes) for the 2008 election: Colorado (9), Florida (27), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13). The map permits you to experiment by assigning each state to a particular candidate and tally up the total.

In a Washington Post column, David Broder referred to North Carolina and Indiana as "unimportant" "throwaway" states (May 8, 2008). Broder's somewhat undiplomatic (but accurate) wording also applies to a total of 36 states (plus the District of Columbia) because these jurisdictions are not "battlegrounds" in the 2008 presidential election. Under the almost universally-used winner-take-all rule (which awards all of a state's electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most votes in a particular state), presidential candidates have no reason to visit, organize, advertise, poll, or pay any attention to states in which they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind.

WASHINGTON (June 8) — While many people will work on their tans this summer, or on summer reading lists or on not working too hard, two exceptions — John McCain and Barack Obama — and their underlings will be working.

Working industriously on an election that only one can win.

With 11 weeks to the start of the Democratic convention — and the GOP event just days later — Republican McCain and Democrat Obama will be focused on strategy, fundraising, shoring up weak spots and exploiting opportunities to prepare themselves for the sprint to Nov. 4.

Here's what they'll be worrying about:

Shrinking the electoral map.

From now on, the great majority of Americans can be excused if they barely realize a presidential election is under way. They will see virtually no TV ads, visits by candidates or local news coverage.

That's because this campaign, like the last two, will focus on about 15 competitive states. Both parties see the other states as reliably in their camps and not needing attention, or totally out of reach and not worth the effort and expense of trying to win them. In either case, these states will largely be ignored.

McCain will start by trying to hold the 31 states President Bush won in 2004 (which are almost identical to the 30 he won in 2000). If he succeeds, he will be president.

Obama must claim one or more of those states, while losing few if any of the ones Al Gore and John Kerry won in their narrow losses to Bush.

The magic number is 18. That's how many electoral votes Obama must add to Kerry's 252, from four years ago, to secure the presidency. For example, if Obama carries Iowa (seven electoral votes) and Missouri (11) without losing any Kerry states, he would become president.

Other states Obama will target as possible pickups are Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and at least one — Virginia — not normally within the Democrats' reach.

He must play defense elsewhere in hopes of keeping McCain from snatching Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, New Hampshire and possibly Maine, all of which Kerry won.

One possible scenario would be excruciating for McCain. If he carried every state Bush won in 2004 except Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa — a plausible outcome — then he and Obama would each have 269 electoral votes. The House of Representatives would break the tie, with each state delegation having one vote. Democrats control more state delegations than Republicans, so Obama almost surely would be named president.

Choosing a running mate.

Analysts question whether a vice presidential choice seriously affects a presidential election, but Obama calls it the most important decision he will make before Election Day. He and McCain have appointed small groups to vet contenders and, if nothing else, the process will fascinate the political chattering class for a while.

Obama first must decide whether to tap Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who battled him to the end and has legions of fans who want her on the ticket. Many political insiders think he will turn elsewhere, but they do not agree on a front-runner.

Possibilities include four vanquished presidential rivals (besides Clinton): New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, and Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware, and Chris Dodd of Connecticut. Former Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia is often mentioned, as are two prominent female supporters of Obama: Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

Less conventional choices for Obama would be Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, or a prominent Clinton supporter, such as Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana. Virginia alone (a GOP-leaning state Obama would love to win) has three possible running mates: Gov. Tim Kaine, Sen. Jim Webb and former Gov. Mark Warner, who is running for the Senate.

McCain is likely to look at Republican Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Charlie Crist of Florida, two battleground states. Other possibilities include former Massachusetts governor and presidential rival Mitt Romney; Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman; South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford; Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin; and former congressman and White House budget director Rob Portman of Ohio, another key state.

A private-sector choice might be Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard.

Defining your opponent before he defines you.

Campaign pollsters say the average person still knows relatively little about Obama or McCain. Both men and their allies will race to fill in the blanks with appealing portraits of themselves and unflattering pictures of the other.

Obama's theme is "change," and he constantly says McCain would carry out "a third term" of President Bush, whose approval ratings approach historic lows. McCain portrays Obama as inexperienced, naive and more talk than action.

Youth and age will be a key subtext. Obama does not directly allude to McCain's age, which will hit 72 on the eve of the GOP convention. But their age difference, 25 years, is the largest in history for major party nominees. Obama must show he's mature and ready; McCain must show he's sharp and vigorous.

Both campaigns are rapidly adding staff. Obama's team will focus on introducing the first-term senator to voters who may not know much about his biography, while on Monday he begins a two-week economic tour of the country.

Raising money.

Obama has assembled an unprecedented political fundraising machine, raking in $264 million in 16 months. McCain has raised $115 million in 17 months. McCain, assured of his eventual nomination, had his best fundraising month in May, raising $21.5 million. Obama, reeling from controversies over his former pastor and still battling Clinton, raised nearly $32 million in April.

Obama should manage to continue this extraordinary accumulation of cash. McCain is improving as he works with the Republican National Committee to expand his donor base.

The Democrats' challenge is to build the party's finances. The RNC, now operating with McCain strategists in place, raised nearly $24 million in May and had $53.6 million on hand at the beginning of June. The Democratic National Committee raised nearly $5 million in May and ended the month with $4 million in the bank.

Obama is putting his stamp on the DNC, and has installed a top strategist to oversee general election operations. Separately, on Sunday, Obama named Matthew Nugen, his campaign's political director, to oversee operations for the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August.

McCain is preparing to accept about $85 million in public financing. But he needs approval from the Federal Election Commission, which cannot act until the Senate confirms nominees required for a quorum.

Obama is expected to turn down the hefty check and rely on private donors to finance his run.

In many states that President Bush captured in the 2004 election, Barack Obama has swelled the ranks of Democrats by the thousands, drawing record numbers of young people and African Americans to the polls.

But will this enthusiasm — which propelled his victory Tuesday in the race for the Democratic nomination — deliver enough of these states to Obama to win the presidency?

That question is on the minds of strategists plotting the Democratic Party's drive to retake the White House. In national polls, Obama runs about even with Republican John McCain, but he cannot win the 270 electoral votes he needs unless he picks up states that Bush won.

McCain, for his part, must hold all of Bush's states, or else carry some new ones to make up for any losses.

"Everybody's top priorities will be those 12 to 15 swing states that were close in 2004," said Charles Black, a senior McCain advisor.

For weeks, Obama and McCain have crossed paths in those states, with a particular emphasis on Florida. When South Dakota and Montana handed Obama the delegates needed to clinch the nomination Tuesday night, he did not celebrate in either state, but in Minnesota — a state that is crucial for Democrats to hold.

Obama is running in a climate that strongly favors Democrats. Advisors say he is well-placed to expand the map of Democratic states to Colorado and Virginia, a pair of Bush states now more friendly to his party — and might even add such GOP strongholds as Georgia.

Yet a wholesale recoloring of the nation's red-and-blue electoral map is hard to fathom, strategists and independent analysts say.

Instead, the Illinois senator probably will battle McCain most fiercely in states around the Great Lakes and in the Southwest — those with the narrowest vote margins between Bush and his 2004 Democratic challenger, Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry.

McCain stands a plausible chance of carrying perhaps half a dozen states that Kerry won. The Arizona senator's popularity with independents puts states such as Wisconsin and New Hampshire within reach.

Two other states that went Democratic in the last presidential contest — Pennsylvania and Michigan — are also top McCain targets, thanks partly to Obama's trouble bonding with working-class white voters.

But, pollsters say, McCain's standing has been inflated by the protracted Democratic nomination fight. Now that the attacks on Obama by rival Hillary Rodham Clinton will recede into the past, they say, McCain's poll numbers are likely to drop.

"He'll have the challenge of beating a solidified Democratic Party, and that's going to be a tough row to hoe," said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll.

McCain's campaign has put forward optimistic election-day scenarios, saying he can pick up Democratic-leaning states such as New Jersey and Washington.

But once Democrats unite, the dismal environment for Republicans could force him to devote more effort to defending states that Bush won. The sluggish economy, the Iraq war and Bush's unpopularity are potentially major drags on McCain's candidacy, even if his iconoclastic image gives him some distance from his beleaguered party.

"The concept that McCain is going to put the Pennsylvanias of the world in play is a much less plausible scenario than the Democrats putting the Missouris and Ohios in play," said Ruy Teixeira, co-author of "The Emerging Democratic Majority."

Obama's team has laid out its best-case scenarios

. "We feel we can stretch the battlefield," Obama strategist David Axelrod said.

In Georgia and Virginia, about 700,000 African Americans who are eligible to vote are not registered, and Obama has the money and volunteer force to sign them up, said Steve Hildebrand, his deputy campaign manager.

But apart from Virginia, where the rapidly growing Washington suburbs have fueled recent Democratic victories, the South looks bleak for Obama, pollsters say. Recent Democratic wins in Mississippi and Louisiana congressional races have sparked new hope for Obama, but pollsters say that black voters who drove his victories in Southern primaries are unlikely to be numerous enough to overcome the region's strong GOP leanings.

"The truth is there is no relationship . . . between how you do in a primary election in a state and how you do in a general in that state," Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said.

In the Southwest, McCain holds an edge in Arizona, his home state. But in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, rapid population growth — and an influx of Latinos — has led to newly favorable conditions for Democrats.

Bush, who drew 45% of the Latino vote in 2004, carried the three states. McCain hopes that his support for legalizing many undocumented immigrants, and the political price he paid for it within his party, will keep him competitive with Latinos. Also comforting to McCain: Latinos have sided with Clinton over Obama in Democratic contests, most recently on Sunday in the Puerto Rico primary.

For Obama, perhaps the biggest challenge lies in three big industrial states that offer a rich trove of electoral votes: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

In the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries, Obama won scant support from white blue-collar voters, a key bloc in the Rust Belt. History suggests that they will lean toward McCain. In 2004, white voters with no college degree voted for Bush over Kerry by 23 percentage points; Obama cannot afford to lose them by such a wide margin.

McCain's support of free trade, especially the North American Free Trade Agreement, could hurt his effort in the economically pressed region. But "there's going to be some natural appeal for the old war veteran who sort of speaks his mind," said William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Frey described Obama as "a harder person for a lot of these older, middle-aged baby boomers and seniors to identify with."

As the first black presidential nominee of a major party, Obama will also face a race factor. "I wouldn't say it's out and out racism," Frey said, "but it's the whole idea of changing from the stereotypical candidate they're used to."

At the same time, a surge in black turnout in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit and other cities could offset any Obama shortfall among working-class whites.

In the Midwest and elsewhere, Obama and McCain face a highly competitive campaign for independents, notably in Minnesota and Wisconsin, states that Kerry won by narrow margins.

"The fact that neither one of them is seen as a tough, hard-core partisan gives them both entree to those voters that other nominees in the past haven't had," said Democratic strategist Bill Carrick.

One state Bush won in 2004 is particularly ripe for Obama to pick up: Iowa. Obama built a powerful organization that swept him to victory in Iowa's Democratic caucuses in January.

But Florida, a far more populous swing state and the scene of the 2000 vote-count debacle, could be tough for Obama. Older voters, a vast group there, strongly preferred Clinton over Obama. And Obama has struggled to gain the trust of some Jewish voters, a crucial constituency in South Florida. That dynamic has led to fierce competition between Obama and McCain over which would be a stronger champion of Israel's security.

The General Election Campaign Begins With A Close Race on the Horizon.

Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain. National polls consistently show Barack Obama ahead of McCain, but those polls are seldom an accurate reflection of how the Electoral College will play out. Every analysis of the electoral map suggests that 2008 will be just as close as the two preceding elections. Some new states have joined the elite “swing state” club, but the only important number stays the same, 270. National polls suggest that Democrats have a slight advantage, but in going state-to-state the situation is complicated. NCEC is not stopping to rest or reflect after the primary; we are moving ahead, because we know that every day counts.

A great deal of attention has been placed on the emergence of new targets for the Democrats in the 2008 election, but that doesn't mean that the traditional battlegrounds are any less competitive. Traditionally close states such as Florida , Iowa , Michigan , Ohio , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin are states that are fought over cycle after cycle and early polls suggest that they will once again be at the forefront on election night. An average of early polls shows that Democratic nominee Barack Obama fares well in these states. He leads in Iowa , Ohio , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin , and is extremely close in Florida and Michigan . If these results were to remain through Election Day, the Democrats would come out ahead in electoral votes from these big states by a small margin: 58 for the Democrats to 44 for the Republicans. These states will be the site of aggressive campaigning for the next six months, but if the Obama campaign can shore up support in Michigan, a traditionally Democratic state, and maintain the lead in these other states, than a Democrat is headed for the White House. Michigan , which has not voted for a Republican in the presidential election since 1988, is the biggest source of worry at present. Michigan will be at the forefront of the economic debate this year, and thus fair John McCain has remained competitive in this state. The state will likely be determined by Black turnout and Democratic performance in Suburban areas, as population in the urban areas declines.

The early polls in traditional swing states are cause for optimism, but it is a cautious optimism at best. The polls will most likely swing back and forth from now until November, and Democrats can't afford to let a setback in one of these states spell disaster for the entire campaign. In 2000, and 2004, Democrats relied too heavily on winning all or one specific combination of these swing states, which left no margin for error and eventually led to defeat. The emergence of Barack Obama as the leader of the Democratic ticket is a stroke of good fortune in terms of taking advantage of new opportunities in the Electoral College. Obama's victory in the Democratic primary firmly places Colorado , Missouri , Nevada , and Virginia in the battleground category for November. He consistently polled well ahead of his former rival Hillary Clinton in general election matchups against Republican candidate John McCain in these states. Other potential opportunities exist in Indiana , where the Democrats won 3 House seats in 2006, and North Carolina . In North Carolina , a strong Black turnout could make this a close race.

An average of multiple polls in these states shows that Obama wins in Colorado and New Mexico , which would bring a total of 14 electoral votes. These 14 electoral votes would help offset any potential loss in Michigan . He's also running extremely close in Missouri and Virginia. The crown jewel of any of these states is Virginia ; a victory there would signal a shift in the GOP's long domination of the South and bring a crucial 13 electoral votes to the Democratic column, which could deliver the final blow to the Republicans in this election. If the Democrats are able to win three of these five states, it could propel them to victory. The Republicans have carried Virginia by six percent in the last two presidential elections, but a growing population and better performances by Democrats in suburban areas have put this state in play. Since 2005, Democrats have captured the governorship and a senate seat in statewide elections. When averaging all the recent polls from Virginia , the Republicans hold a one-point advantage in the state. Similar developments have made Colorado a battleground, which now favors Democrats, a growing population and a strong performance in suburban counties in consecutive cycles has Democrats counting on this state, which they haven't won since 1992.

When counting up the votes, the Electoral College looks as if it will be as close as ever. The graph shows NCEC projections suggesting that Democrats have a slight advantage. States that are safely Democratic or expected to go Democratic account for 232 electoral votes, leaving them 38 votes shy of the needed 270. The Republicans appear likely to capture 226 electoral votes, leaving them 44 votes shy. The outlook appeared better a few months ago before Michigan became a true battleground. However, Pennsylvania , which is traditionally a Democratic state, is currently listed as a battleground state; should polls continue to show Senator Obama ahead, which they have recently, then the outlook will look significantly better. The table below gives a full look at the Electoral College as it stands right now.

Battleground States

Democratic Leaning Battleground States

Republican Learning Battleground States

If Illinois Sen. Barack Obama becomes the Democratic choice to oppose Arizona Sen. John McCain , he would run about the same as Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry did against President Bush in 2004 in the 11 “swing states” where the winner’s margin was less than five percent, according to a sampling of polls conducted so far this year.

There are many caveats to this kind of forecast, starting with the fact that polls of general election presidential match-ups in each state conducted in April and May are snapshots in time far in advance of the fall contest. These are also polls conducted before the Democrats have put their final stamp of approval on a nominee, and if New York Sen. Hillary Clinton were to win the nomination - which most political analysts see as unlikely - it would shift the outcomes in some of the states.

In 2004, Kerry won Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and New Hampshire for a total of 69 electoral votes. Bush won Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and New Mexico for 46 electoral votes.

Looking now at polls of these same states, Obama leads McCain in Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa which have a total of 64 electoral votes. McCain leads in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan and New Hampshire which have a total of 46 electoral votes. This time around, the latest poll shows New Mexico as a toss-up.

Here’s a state-by-state look. Round-ups of all the states for which general election match-up polls are available (as are Senate race polls) in CQ Politics Poll Tracker.

Stays Democratic:

• Minnesota:Kerry beat Bush 51.1 percent to 47.6 percent. Both Obama and Clinton lead McCain 53 percent to 38 percent, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 showed Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 38 percent and Clinton leading McCain 49 percent to 40 percent.

• Oregon:Kerry beat Bush 51.3 percent to 47.2 percent. Obama leads McCain in a general election match-up for Oregon by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent in a May 7 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports. In mid-April, SurveyUSA had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent while Clinton ran statistically even with McCain.

• Pennsylvania:Kerry beat Bush 50.9 percent to 48.4 percent. Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 40 percent with a 2.4 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton is ahead 50 percent to 37 percent. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18,Obama has a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over McCain with 12 percent undecided.

• Wisconsin:Kerry beat Bush 49.7 percent to 49.3 percent. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 10 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. SurveyUSA did not poll on Clinton. This race is listed as “stays Democrat” based on the most recent poll although a May 5 poll by Rasmussen Reports had McCain ahead of either Obama or Clinton by 47 percent to 43 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Shifts Republican to Democrat:

• Colorado:Bush beat Kerry 51.7 percent to 47 percent. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19. The two were in a statistical dead heat in Rasmussen’s last poll conducted mid-April. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic nominee, McCain would be leading her 47 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent preferring other. The margin of error is 4 points.

Swing States in 2004 Would Add Up About Same in an Obama–McCain Race

• Iowa:Bush beat Kerry 49.9 percent to 49.2 percent. Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 21-22 by SurveyUSA. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. This poll did not include Clinton. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 13 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing “other” and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

Stays Republican:

• Nevada:Bush beat Kerry 50.5 percent to 47.9 percent. McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. Rasmussen noted that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points.

• Ohio:Bush beat Kerry 50.8 percent to 48.7 percent. McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 40 percent, with a 2.8 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University pollconducted May 13-20. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. A Rasmussen Reportssurvey conducted May 15 had Obama locked with McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing “other” and 5 percent undecided. If Clinton were to stage a miracle and become the nominee, she’d be leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent.

Shifts Democrat to Republican:

• Michigan:Kerry beat Bush 51.2 percent to 47.8 percent. McCain leads Obama by 41 percent to 37 percent but with a whopping 21 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 27. The poll did not include Clinton. A May 7 survey by Rasmussen Reports had shown a toss-up race no matter which Democrat runs against McCain. McCain had 45 percent to Obama’s 44 percent with 6 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 5 percent undecided. Clinton tied with McCain at 44 percent with 9 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

• New Hampshire:Kerry beat Bush 50.2 percent to 48.9 percent. McCain leads Obama 41.8 percent to 39.3 percent with 18 percent undecided, and Clinton by 45.2 percent to 36.4 percent with 18.4 percent undecided in a survey conducted April 28-May 2 by Dartmouth College’s Rockefeller Center.

Republican to toss-up:

• New Mexico:Bush beat Kerry 49.8 percent to 49 percent. McCain and Obama run dead even at 44 percent each with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. The poll did not include Clinton.

• Iowa:Bush beat Kerry 49.9 percent to 49.2 percent. Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 21-22 by SurveyUSA. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. This poll did not include Clinton. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 13 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing “other” and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

Stays Republican:

• Nevada:Bush beat Kerry 50.5 percent to 47.9 percent. McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. Rasmussen noted that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points.

• Ohio:Bush beat Kerry 50.8 percent to 48.7 percent. McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 40 percent, with a 2.8 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University pollconducted May 13-20. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. A Rasmussen Reportssurvey conducted May 15 had Obama locked with McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing “other” and 5 percent undecided. If Clinton were to stage a miracle and become the nominee, she’d be leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent.

Shifts Democrat to Republican:

• Michigan:Kerry beat Bush 51.2 percent to 47.8 percent. McCain leads Obama by 41 percent to 37 percent but with a whopping 21 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 27. The poll did not include Clinton. A May 7 survey by Rasmussen Reports had shown a toss-up race no matter which Democrat runs against McCain. McCain had 45 percent to Obama’s 44 percent with 6 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 5 percent undecided. Clinton tied with McCain at 44 percent with 9 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

• New Hampshire:Kerry beat Bush 50.2 percent to 48.9 percent. McCain leads Obama 41.8 percent to 39.3 percent with 18 percent undecided, and Clinton by 45.2 percent to 36.4 percent with 18.4 percent undecided in a survey conducted April 28-May 2 by Dartmouth College’s Rockefeller Center.

Republican to toss-up:

• New Mexico:Bush beat Kerry 49.8 percent to 49 percent. McCain and Obama run dead even at 44 percent each with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. The poll did not include Clinton.