Democrats favored in electoral map
Competition is expected to play out primarily in 14 states
By Liz Sidoti,
Associated Press
April 26, 2008
The electoral road to the White House favors Democrats this fall ? either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton ? and has Republican John McCain playing defense to thwart a presidential power shift.
A downtrodden economy, the war in Iraq and a public call for change have created an Electoral College outlook and a political environment filled with extraordinary opportunity for the Democrats and enormous challenge for the GOP nominee-in-waiting.
Both parties count on victory in dozens of states that long have voted their way. The competition to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win is expected to play out primarily in 14 states. All but one saw the greatest action in 2004. The exception is Virginia, a longtime Republican stronghold where Democrats have made inroads.
Eight of the states went for President Bush four years ago, including the crown jewels Ohio and Florida. Six, including big-prize Pennsylvania, voted for Democrat John Kerry. Far more electoral votes, 97, are up for grabs for Democrats than the 69 available for McCain to go after. Twice as many of the closest states ? decided by 2 or fewer percentage points ? voted Republican in 2004; they include New Mexico and Iowa, which the GOP won by 1 point.
Both sides argue that their candidates can expand the playing field by making more states competitive than in previous elections. But they likely will only spend time and money to test that theory once they feel confident about higher priority states.
"This is going to be a tough campaign. I have no illusions how hard we have to work to win," McCain says, a sobering assessment of a Republican's chances when most voters say the country is on the wrong track under a GOP president.
Conversely, Democrats exude confidence that Nov. 4 will break their way ? even as they continue their nomination slugfest.
"I have every reason to believe we're going to have a Democratic president," Clinton argues. Obama declares: "We will beat John McCain in November. You can take that to the bank!"
Recent polls, however, show McCain competing strongly with both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups, and Republicans and Democrats envision a close race.
In 2004, Bush won 286 electoral votes to 251 for Kerry. This year's Democratic nominee must triumph in all the states Kerry won, and pick up 19 more votes to prevail ? or come up with another game plan to reach the magic number. McCain, for his part, must fend off Democratic challenges to hang on to the GOP advantage.
DEMOCRATIC OPPORTUNITIES:
Of the 14 battlegrounds, Bush won eight with 97 electoral votes. Half were decided by only 1 or 2 percentage points, and all were under 10 points. Five have Democratic governors this year. Electoral votes are in parentheses.
Three Western states ? Colorado (9), Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5) ? appear obvious targets for Democrats given their gains in the region, sharp population growth and large numbers of swing-voting Hispanics. But McCain, a four-term senator from Arizona, does well among those voters, too; his Senate support for an eventual path to citizenship for illegal immigrants could help.
To the east, Iowa (7) holds promise for the Democrats; Republicans narrowly put it into their column in 2004 after years of Democratic dominance. Both Obama and Clinton competed here during the primary. McCain's opposition to ethanol subsidies complicate his chances, nor is he a favorite of evangelicals. Though less likely to change hands, Missouri (11) is a perennial battleground.
McCain also must defend the two vote-rich prizes that decided the past two elections.
Ohio (20), a bellwether that tipped the race to Bush in 2004, may be poised for a switch, with a rash of job losses, high numbers of Iraq casualties and a series of Republican statewide political defeats in 2006, including the governor.
Florida (27), which put Bush in the White House in 2000 and voted for him again in 2004, will certainly be hard-fought, given its electoral treasure chest. Its demographics are tilting more Republican, though, and Obama has fared poorly in the primaries among Jewish and Hispanic voters. Clinton may have a better shot.
Virginia (13) is a case where Obama, who is black, might play stronger than Clinton because of the state's large black population. The state moves into the competitive category given Democratic gains fueled by the growing Washington suburbs. Virginia also is home to large communities of military veterans who may have an affinity for McCain, a former Navy pilot who spent more than five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.
REPUBLICAN OPPORTUNITIES:
Kerry won six of the hard-fought states offering 69 electoral votes that McCain will try to put in the GOP column. All were decided by under 5 percentage points. Most have Democratic governors as well as long histories as swing states.
In the upper Midwest, Minnesota (10) has a quirky independent streak that presents an opening for McCain. It also has a Republican governor and will host the GOP's national convention. Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (17) have high numbers of Reagan Democrats that McCain could attract. But voters in all three states are reeling from economic woes, and that works in the Democrats' favor.
New Hampshire (4) fell to Kerry by a razor-thin margin four years ago and, Democrats captured two House seats two years later. But McCain has a close bond with the state that made him in his first presidential primary in 2000, and saved him this year.
It's been 20 years since Pennsylvania (21) voted Republican. Further complicating McCain's chances: The state's economy is bad and many Pennsylvanians have died in Iraq, the war he staunchly supports. Still, conservative swaths that are home to right-leaning Democrats could give McCain an opening. As usual, the Philadelphia suburbs figure to be pivotal.
Oregon (7) has become more competitive in recent elections, but Democrats have won it in each of the last five. McCain hopes his moderate image and support for curbing climate change will tip the state to Republicans.
WILD-CARDS:
Beyond the core states, several others are worth watching.
If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, Arkansas (6) will certainly be contested. It has voted Republican in back-to-back elections but her husband, a former governor there, carried it twice. West Virginia (5), too, could be a target given that Bill Clinton won it twice and it's home to a large number of the working-class voters she attracts.
Should Obama be the nominee, Democrats say they hope to put solid Southern GOP states in play, those with large black populations. Among them: North Carolina (15) and Georgia (15), and possibly even Louisiana (9) and Mississippi (6). But these are unlikely targets unless the Democrats think the election is in hand.
Democrats also say they may look at Montana (3), which has a Democratic governor, and Kentucky (8), which twice voted for Bill Clinton. But they're also long-shots.
McCain should hold his home state of Arizona (10) despite Democratic threats to play there. He sees potential opportunities in Democratic-leaning states on both coasts because of his appeal to voters across the political spectrum. These include Washington (11) and Maine (4), and, perhaps, even New Jersey (15) and Delaware (3). McCain also talks big about California (55) but the last Republican to win there was George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Liz Sidoti covers the presidential race for The Associated Press.
Click here for interactive graphics for Lou Jacobson’s updated list of 19 battleground states.
Out There:
'Purple' states turn a little more 'blue'
By Louis Jacobson,
Stateline.org Columnist
March 6, 2008
Last July — a lifetime ago in the 2008 presidential race — “Out There” rated 19 battleground states on how likely each was to vote Republican or Democratic in the general election. Eight months later, the list of states that are neither solidly Republican “red” nor Democratic “blue” remains the same. But within those battleground states, Democrats have been methodically gaining ground.
While there are differences in how U.S. Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) or Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) would fare in November, Out There’s latest state-by-state projection gives either Democrat a modest electoral-vote edge against U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), though not enough to clinch the presidency.
Because presidents aren’t elected by a nationwide vote but rather state by state through electoral votes, this year’s race — as in 2000 and 2004 — is likely to come down to a select group of “Toss-Up” states where the presidential preferences are too close to call. Last July, just three states — Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio — qualified for Toss-Up status. Since then, Virginia, previously ranked as Likely Republican, and Missouri, formerly Lean Republican, have shifted to the Toss-Up category, regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.
If it’s Obama, Colorado also shifts from Lean Republican to Toss-Up while Iowa drops off the too-close-to-call list to Lean Democratic. If it’s Clinton, then Arkansas — where she served as first lady in the governor’s mansion — comes into play.
Despite Obama’s strength in red-state caucuses and McCain’s appeal as a moderate, this analysis keeps the number of “purple” states — those neither safely red nor blue but still up for grabs — at its original 19, at least at this stage of the most wide-open presidential contest in at least half a century.
Eleven of these states (Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia) voted for President George W. Bush in 2004. Eight (Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin) voted for U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D). This analysis divides the 19 states into five categories — Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, Toss-Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican — based on polling data and discussions with roughly 40 state-based political experts.
Driven by a range of factors — including continued disaffection with President Bush, worries about the economy and a surge in fundraising and voter energy — the general trend since last July has been incremental movement in the Democrats’ direction.
Adding the Safe, Likely and Lean Democratic states leaves an Obama-led ticket well-positioned to win 259 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, compared to 221 for McCain. A ticket headed by Clinton would lead McCain a bit more narrowly, 252-224.
Despite the two Democrats’ prospective strength in November, their electoral vote maps do look a bit different. Four states worth 74 electoral votes — Arkansas, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania — would be easier for Clinton to win, though to varying degrees. Six states worth 49 electoral votes — Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia — should be easier for Obama.
Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats seem to be holding on to their purple states. No Lean Democratic state has yet slipped into the Toss-Up category. The Democrats seem to be holding on in four blue-collar states hit hard by the economic slowdown (Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin) as well as in three potentially competitive states in the Pacific Northwest and New England (Oregon, Washington and New Hampshire).
The good news for the Republicans is that McCain would do better than any other Republican candidate would have in essentially all of these states. Almost no other Republican would be as close as he is in the electoral math. Indeed, this analysis shifts Oregon from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic because of some polls showing the Arizona senator within striking distance. Still, major Republican shifts in Democratic-held purple states have yet to materialize.
The states moving toward the Democrats are diverse. In Virginia, Democrats, buoyed by the growing electoral influence of the moderate-to-liberal Washington suburbs, followed up wins for governor and a U.S. Senate seat by taking over the state Senate in 2007. Even last year, polls began showing strength for Democratic presidential candidates. Obama won the Virginia primary, though either Democratic candidate should make a strong run in the fall.
Meanwhile, Missouri also seems to be moving in the Democrats’ direction. Analysts within the state say that Missouri’s role as the quintessential bellwether state — voting for every presidential winner save one over the past century — has kept its leanings closely tied to the national disaffection with Republicans, including President Bush and Gov. Matt Blunt (R). Blunt was so unpopular he declined to seek a second term this year.
Obama likely would run more strongly than Clinton would in a swath of Mountain West states where she and her husband, the former president, have never been too popular. Obama has inspired strong support in Colorado, where a Democratic surge already has been under way for several years, and both he and possibly Clinton stand to make Nevada a more competitive state than it had seemed last July. The high-profile Nevada caucuses produced a surge in new Democratic voters, and the constant influx of newcomers means lots of Nevadans who aren’t wedded to the state’s historical Republican leanings
Iowa, which went narrowly for Bush in 2004 after voting for Democratic nominee Al Gore in 2000, also looks stronger for Obama than for Clinton, after his stunning caucus victory that bequeathed him a strong ground operation and lots of energized supporters.
As the nominee, Clinton still could win in Iowa. And she runs stronger than Obama in several other states.
The most crucial of these is Ohio, the deciding state in the 2004 election; she won Ohio’s primary on March 4. Clinton also would run much stronger than Obama in Arkansas, where she lived from the 1970s until Bill Clinton was elected president, and somewhat stronger in West Virginia, where the demographics fit better with her base of support (blue-collar whites) than with Obama’s (African-Americans and urban and suburban liberals). However, in both West Virginia and Arkansas, McCain is well-positioned to keep those states red regardless of the nominee.
In two other big, pivotal states, Pennsylvania and Florida, Clinton might run somewhat stronger than Obama. While Obama would be expected to do well in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metropolitan areas, Pennsylvania is home to many blue-collar white voters who were warmer to Clinton than Obama during the primaries. (Pennsylvania has its primary April 22.) For now, analysts concur that Pennsylvania still qualifies as Lean Democratic regardless of the nominee, though its rating is iffier than it was last July. A late February Quinnipiac poll found both Democrats in a statistical dead heat with McCain.
The trends in Florida are harder to pin down. A mid-February Quinnipiac University poll found both Democrats essentially tied with McCain, with Clinton faring slightly better than Obama. Obama would energize black voters, whose low turnout in recent elections has helped Republican showings. But McCain is popular among seniors and veterans, and he has the strong support of the state’s popular GOP governor, Charlie Crist, a moderate. For now, Out There is keeping Florida at Lean Republican.
But as this zigzag primary season has shown, the electoral situation can change overnight — and there’s lots of time between now and November.
Battleground states: Republican to Democratic
Obama vs. McCain ranking
1. West Virginia (5 electoral votes): Likely Republican
2. Arkansas (6 electoral votes): Likely Republican
3. Florida (27 electoral votes): Lean Republican
4. Arizona (10 electoral votes): Lean Republican
5. Nevada (5 electoral votes): Lean Republican
6. Colorado (9 electoral votes): Toss-Up
7. Virginia (13 electoral votes): Toss-Up
8. Missouri (11 electoral votes): Toss-Up
9. Ohio (20 electoral votes): Toss-Up
10. New Mexico (5 electoral votes): Toss-Up
11. Iowa (7 electoral votes): Toss-Up
12. Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
13. (tie) Maine (4 electoral votes*): Lean Democratic
13. (tie) Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
13. (tie) Michigan (17 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
13. (tie) Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
17. Oregon (7 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
18. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
19. Washington (11 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
Clinton vs. McCain ranking
1. West Virginia (5 electoral votes): Likely Republican
2. Arizona (10 electoral votes): Likely Republican
3. Nevada (5 electoral votes): Lean Republican
4. Florida (27 electoral votes): Lean Republican
5. Colorado (9 electoral votes): Lean Republican
6. Arkansas (6 electoral votes): Toss-Up
7. New Mexico (5 electoral votes): Toss-Up
8. Missouri (11 electoral votes): Toss-Up
9. Virginia (13 electoral votes): Toss-Up
10. Iowa (7 electoral votes): Toss-Up
11. Ohio (20 electoral votes): Toss-Up
12. (tie) Maine (4 electoral votes*): Lean Democratic
12. (tie) Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
12. (tie) Michigan (17 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
12. (tie) Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
16. Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
17. Oregon (7 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
18. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
19. Washington (11 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
July 2007 Ranking
1. Virginia (13 electoral votes): Likely Republican
2. Nevada (5 electoral votes): Likely Republican
3. Florida (27 electoral votes): Lean Republican
4. Arizona (10 electoral votes): Lean Republican
5. West Virginia (5 electoral votes): Lean Republican
6. Colorado (9 electoral votes): Lean Republican
7. Arkansas (6 electoral votes): Lean Republican
8. Missouri (11 electoral votes): Lean Republican
9. Ohio (20 electoral votes): Toss-Up
10. New Mexico (5 electoral votes): Toss-Up
11. Iowa (7 electoral votes): Toss-Up
12. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
13. Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
14. Michigan (17 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
15. Maine (4 electoral votes*): Lean Democratic
16. Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
17. Oregon (7 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
18. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
19. Washington (11 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
*Maine allocates electoral votes in part by Congressional district.
Political analyst Lou Jacobson listed (on July 19, 2007) 19 battleground states for the 2008 presidential election. The remaining 31 states are listed as either "safely Democratic" or "safely Republican."
The complete article contains an interactive map.
In order from most Republican to most Democratic, the 19 battleground states for the 2008 presidential election are
2 Likely Republican
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
6 Lean Republican
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
3 Toss-Up
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
5 Lean Democratic
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
3 Likely Democratic
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Washington state (11 electoral votes)
Forty-eight states currently use the winner-take-all rule that awards all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state.
Under the winner-take-all rule, candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the concerns of voters of states that they cannot possibly win or lose. This means that voters in two thirds of the states are effectively disenfranchised in presidential elections because candidates concentrate their attention on a small handful of "battleground" states. In 2004, candidates concentrated over two-thirds of their money and campaign visits to win votes in just five states; over 80% in nine states; and over 99% of their money in just 16 states.
The spectator states in presidential elections include 12 of the 13 least populous states (all but New Hampshire); 9 of the nation's 13 most populous states (California, Texas, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and Massachusetts).
